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Simple & Pragmatic Problem Solving
#73Chapter 6: Group Creative Option Generation• Group Creative OptionsLogical and forward-looking ThinkingIndividual and group (asynchronous/expert) Mode2-6 Weeks (Iterative rounds)(Time-consuming)

Delphi Technique

From the book "Advanced Problem-Solving Toolbox: 115 Creative Plays" | Compiled & Edited by: Mojtaba Goudarzi, Open translation: Mehrshid Goudarzi
Executive Synopsis & Core Logic:

is a structured method for future forecasting, trend analysis and elite decision-making using anonymous multi-stage questionnaires and frequent statistical feedback.

Operational Parameters & Specifications

Category
Group Creative Options
Dominant Thinking
Logical and forward-looking
Participation
Individual and group (asynchronous/expert)
Estimated TimeTime-consuming
2-6 Weeks (Iterative rounds)
Workshop
Input Format
Expert opinions and judgments, multi-stage structured questionnaires
Output Format
Strategic Idea Generation and Forecasting
Key Application
forecasting technology and market trends, analyzing macro-policies, evaluating emerging technologies and building consensus under conditions of high uncertainty.
Core Differentiator:

Complete anonymity of participants and multiple feedback loops to eliminate personality biases, peer pressure, and peer pressure.

Quick Field Example:

A large technology company predicts the future trends of artificial intelligence in the next 10 years with high accuracy by sending anonymous questionnaires in 3 rounds to 30 global experts.

Operational Benefits & Implementation Risks

Advantages & Value Creation:

elimination of the destructive psychological effects of the dominance of talkative people, the possibility of the participation of geographically dispersed experts, the accuracy and depth of answers due to the opportunity for individual thinking.

Risks & Potential Trade-offs:

The long time-consuming nature of the courses, the possibility of experts dropping out in the middle rounds, the dependence of quality on the coordinator's mastery of data analysis.

Real-World Organizational & Industry Scenarios

Technology and Artificial Intelligence Industries: Forecasting Cloud Computing and Artificial Intelligence Architectures Over the Next Decade.
Health Policymaking: Formulating Protocols to Cope with Emerging Epidemics with the Consensus of Physicians Across the Country.
Strategic urban planning: Future studies of public transport development and sustainable energy demand until 2040.

Strategic Rationale & Why to Apply

1Eliminate peer pressure: experts dare to express their unorthodox but revolutionary views.
2Access to the Global Elite: No need to travel, stay, or adjust your schedule to attend physical meetings.
3Refining collective wisdom: Each round's feedback prompts informed revision by experts without any sense of loss of dignity.
4Argumentative Documentation: Dissenting viewpoints against established scientific reasoning and uncovering hidden scenarios.

Conceptual Framework & Book Method Description

"Delphi Technique" is one of the most reliable methods for future research and solving multidimensional problems. In this way, a specialized questionnaire is sent to the members of the panel of experts who are unaware of each other's identity. The answers are collected, summarized and statistically categorized and returned in the second round along with the summary of the arguments. Knowing the perspective of the whole group, experts moderate or strengthen their opinions. This cycle continues until convergence and stabilization of predictions.

Step-by-Step Real-World Implementation Scenario

Prediction of future trends of artificial intelligence in the health industry by a medical holding
1
Step 1: Compilation of the first round exploratory questionnaireThe facilitator prepared a questionnaire containing open questions about the innovations of medical artificial intelligence and its legal risks for the next 10 years.
2
Step 2: Sending to 25 independent expertsQuestionnaires were sent to doctors, senior artificial intelligence researchers and health regulators in different countries and the answers were compiled.
3
Step 3: Summarizing and preparing a second-round quantitative questionnaireAnswers to 40 key headings were summarized and the percentage of occurrence of each was extracted; In the second round, experts gave a priority score to each component.
4
Step 4: Clarifying the arguments of discordant opinionsof experts who were significantly different from the average, explained their documentation about patient data security, and the averages converged.
5
Step 5: extracting the strategic report and investment documentThe final report was compiled by predicting 3 dominant trends (AI-guided surgery, computational drug discovery and genomic file) and the basis of the company's 5-year budgeting.

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Excursion Technique
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