Simprago Logo
Simple & Pragmatic Problem Solving
#24Chapter 3: Problem Identification Techniques• Problem Identificationlogical Thinkingindividual and group Mode30-60 min(Average)

What Patterns Exist?

From the book "Advanced Problem-Solving Toolbox: 115 Creative Plays" | Compiled & Edited by: Mojtaba Goudarzi, Open translation: Mehrshid Goudarzi
Executive Synopsis & Core Logic:

Investigating correlations, recurrences and temporal patterns in data to uncover hidden drivers of performance fluctuations.

Operational Parameters & Specifications

Category
Problem Identification
Dominant Thinking
logical
Participation
individual and group
Estimated TimeAverage
30-60 min
Medium
Input Format
historical data and trends
Output Format
Problem detection
Key Application
Discover the reasons for periodic fluctuations in sales, recurring server failures, or intermittent customer churn.
Core Differentiator:

Focus on discovering simultaneous intersection points of events (temporal correlation) instead of isolated and one-dimensional investigation of variables.

Quick Field Example:

Analyzing online store sales fluctuations and discovering the simultaneity of sales drop with door shutdown and warehouse deficit.

Operational Benefits & Implementation Risks

Advantages & Value Creation:

Strong analytical approach, linking seemingly separate events, anticipating future challenges.

Risks & Potential Trade-offs:

The need to access reliable historical data and the risk of mistaking random correlation for causality.

Real-World Organizational & Industry Scenarios

E-commerce: Analyzing users' buying behavior and discovering cart abandonment patterns.
IT Support: Identify server down patterns while deploying new versions.
Supply Chain and Retail: Exploring the Seasonal Relationship of Out-of-Stock with Marketing Campaigns.

Strategic Rationale & Why to Apply

1Discovering hidden cause and effect relationships: understanding how event A triggers crisis B.
2Avoiding repeated surprises: turning unexpected events into predictable patterns of behavior.
3Alignment of separate departments: showing the interplay of one unit's actions on other unit's crises.
4Optimizing resource allocation: Directing budget and manpower precisely at the intersection of patterns.

Conceptual Framework & Book Method Description

in the "What Patterns Are There?" (What Patterns Exist?) Past data are arranged together in a time axis.

When marketing campaign lines, server uptime, satisfaction rates, and warehouse inventory are aligned, patterns reveal themselves: it turns out that the drop in sales wasn't random, but every time a big campaign ran, the server slowed down and the warehouse ran out!

Step-by-Step Real-World Implementation Scenario

Scenario: Discovering the Pattern of Sales Fluctuations in an Online Sales Platform
1
Step 1: Collect and align data from the past yearCompile reports: daily sales, discount campaign calendar, server traffic, support satisfaction rate and stock status.
2
Step 2: Extracting patterns of correlation and intersectiondiscovered 4 meaningful patterns: 1) The peak of sales coincides with the launch of advertising campaigns 2) The sudden drop in sales coincides exactly with the server outage 3) The end of inventory of best sellers immediately leads to a 40% drop in sales 4) High satisfaction doubles repeat purchases.
3
Step 3: Draw the flowchart of network communicationDraw the impact graph: advertising campaign -> traffic influx -> server slowness and purchase failure -> end of stock of key items -> drop in sales.
4
Step 4: Structural Vulnerability AnalysisUncovering the vicious circle: Ads are being run without coordination with the infrastructure and warehouse team, leading to buyer frustration instead of sales growth.
5
Step 5: Organizational Synchronization Protocol DesignRequirement of technical and logistic coordination 2 weeks before the implementation of each discount campaign which ensured the stability of sales growth.

Is this play relevant to your team or organization?

Share this structured playbook guide directly with colleagues or across your network.

Previous Play (#23)
What Do You Know?
Next Play (#25)
Why-Why Diagram
Analytical Q&A & Field Discussions

Share your reflections or inquiries regarding this play or chapter with the author.

Comments are published after review
No operational dilemmas posted yet. Be the first to initiate an empirical discussion.

Submit Operational Challenge

Your inquiry is routed directly to the Simprago moderation panel for review and official response.

Submissions include anti-spam checks